Political Predictions on Healthcare Reform
Just for fun predictions for the healthcare bill that Reid is set to unveil at 6:30 AM tomorrow.
* It will not have any substantive “public” option and will make some headway on the abortion issue;
* It will have significantly reduced individual mandates, but the CBO models will not have those result in significantly higher uninsurance rates;
* It will have woefully insufficient levels of subsidies for poor Americans, and will limit their growth in future years. I define “woefully insufficient” as subsidy levels that will not reduce Exchange premiums for a family at 200% of poverty to lower levels than premiums available today in non-guaranteed issue states (like Arkansas). As a rule of thumb, a 40-year old man can get an 80% actuarial value plan for under $100 per month today in Arkansas.
* It will not have the CLASS Act;
* There will be some sort of trigger that states can pass to “opt-in” to the Medicaid and other provisions of the bill;
* This bill will garner 60 votes for the 1 AM cloture vote on 12/21, and all subsequent cloture votes through the 12/24 vote. This will be a straight party-line vote;
* This bill will be virtually impossible to reconcile with the House’s bill;
* The CBO will again fail to offer a final score, and will fail to offer any of the following:
* Estimated premium and uninsured impact by state, considering the rate regulations currently in place in each state;
* Estimated total subsidies by state;
* Estimated impact on national health spending;
* Exchange-only premiums, as opposed to average individual premiums which include grandfathered plans;
* Estimated impact on labor-force participation rates (and therefore Social Security) of the near-elderly;
* A result that has a reduction in grandfathered individual membership from 2014 through 2019;
* US Senators will be asked to cast deciding votes without knowing whether this bill will help their state, specifically, or by how much. This damaging information will trickle out from 2010-2014, if this bill can be reconciled and signed by the President.