Hypothetical Mean

Commentary from an Actuarial and Economic Perspective

Political Predictions on Healthcare Reform

with 2 comments

Just for fun predictions for the healthcare bill that Reid is set to unveil at 6:30 AM tomorrow.

* It will not have any substantive “public” option and will make some headway on the abortion issue;

* It will have significantly reduced individual mandates, but the CBO models will not have those result in significantly higher uninsurance rates;

* It will have woefully insufficient levels of subsidies for poor Americans, and will limit their growth in future years.  I define “woefully insufficient” as subsidy levels that will not reduce Exchange premiums for a family at 200% of poverty to lower levels than premiums available today in non-guaranteed issue states (like Arkansas).  As a rule of thumb, a 40-year old man can get an 80% actuarial value plan for under $100 per month today in Arkansas.

* It will not have the CLASS Act;

* There will be some sort of trigger that states can pass to “opt-in” to the Medicaid and other provisions of the bill;

* This bill will garner 60 votes for the 1 AM cloture vote on 12/21, and all subsequent cloture votes through the 12/24 vote.  This will be a straight party-line vote;

* This bill will be virtually impossible to reconcile with the House’s bill;

* The CBO will again fail to offer a final score, and will fail to offer any of the following:

* Estimated premium and uninsured impact by state, considering the rate regulations currently in place in each state;

* Estimated total subsidies by state;

* Estimated impact on national health spending;

* Exchange-only premiums, as opposed to average individual premiums which include grandfathered plans;

* Estimated impact on labor-force participation rates (and therefore Social Security) of the near-elderly;

* A result that has a reduction in grandfathered individual membership from 2014 through 2019;

* US Senators will be asked to cast deciding votes without knowing whether this bill will help their state, specifically, or by how much.  This damaging information will trickle out from 2010-2014, if this bill can be reconciled and signed by the President.


Written by Victor

December 19, 2009 at 2:25 am

Posted in Politics

2 Responses

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  1. This is another victory for the plutocracy, the Republican party and Joe Liebermann. There will never be, in our lifetime, reasonable health care in this country. We had better face the nasty facts. Ours is not a government “of the people, by the people, for the people”. We’re just kidding ourselves.


    Tom Degan


    December 19, 2009 at 11:22 am

  2. […] to my predictions yesterday, this is a much more workable bill, from an insurance perspective, than I was […]

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